Gambler's fallacy


The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been fewer than the usual number of sixes. The term "Monte Carlo fallacy" originates from the best known example of the phenomenon, which occurred in the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913. ==Examples== ===Coin toss=== The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a fair coin.


Participants in a study by Beach and Swensson in 1967 were shown a shuffled deck of index cards with shapes on them, and were instructed to guess which shape would come next in a sequence.


For example, on the 11th of April 1988, 41 players selected 244 as the winning combination.


A popular study by Charles Clotfelter and Philip Cook, investigated this effect in 1991, where they concluded bettors would cease to select numbers immediately after they were selected - ultimately recovering selection popularity within three months.


Soon after, a 1994 study was constructed by Dek Terrell to test the findings of Clotfelter and Cook.


A study by Fischbein and Schnarch in 1997 administered a questionnaire to five groups: students in grades 5, 7, 9, 11, and college students specializing in teaching mathematics.


A study by Huber, Kirchler, and Stockl in 2010 examined how the hot hand and the gambler's fallacy are exhibited in the financial market.

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Page generated on 2021-08-05